A friend of mine, Eric Huizer, sent me a mail today reminding me of some predictions I did in 2007:
Developments that have taken place by 2010, as noted by Patrik Fältström:
- We have 10G network interface(s) on laptops
- $5/mbps is the common/standard price of transit
- Internet traffic is now heavily localized
- Ad revenue will cover the cost/or subsidize significantly local loop
- 90% of Internet bits will be video traffic
- 600 Gbps at any one point in time on the backbone
- VoIP traffic exceeds the PSTN traffic
Interesting to see where you were right:
I’d say: Right: 2,6 and 7
Almost: 3, 5
Not yet: 1,4
My comments are as follows:
- Still (only) 1G interfaces.
- Yes, I think that is pretty close.
- The traffic is not localized, but content is. I missed prediction of the explosive growth of services like Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Flickr etc that drive traffic. So still global traffic, but more local content.
- Ads pay for services, i.e. the local loop for services, but not local loop for end users. So wrong.
- Video is definitely driving bandwidth, both in the form of broadcast, video on demand and conferencing.
- I claim this is correct.
- VoIP traffic in some cases exceeded PSTN already in 2007, so that was maybe too easy.
Thanks Eric for the reminder!